Covid-19 as a source of geopolitical tension: a case of US and China.

Abstract

This study examined how the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated geopolitical tensions between the US and China through a review of media and scholarly literature. Limited research explored viral outbreaks as geopolitical triggers. Significant gaps existed in granular analysis of COVID 19's impact on the bilateral relationship across domains. The study used an exploratory multiple case study design, semi-structured interviews and document analysis. A purposive sample of 30 experts representing different professional roles was interviewed. Interviews explored evolving policy approaches, narratives and implications. The study found nationalistic rhetoric amidst each nation's public health and economic crises intensified strategic competition as both pursued relative gains. Zero-sum narratives increased global mistrust. Despite economic interdependence constraining direct sanctions, US-China ties deteriorated multilaterally amid vaccine diplomacy and WHO reform debates. Future joint gains incentivising cooperation were limited by distrust. The pandemic accelerated geopolitical tensions by amplifying pre-existing suspicions. Simultaneously, both countries embarked on vaccine diplomacy campaigns in Africa, Latin America and Asia which some experts warned could further politicise what should be a humanitarian endeavour. While mutual economic interests suggest rebuilding cooperation is necessary, COVID-19 accelerated an escalating strategic competition characterised by deep mistrust. Rising national populism and propaganda campaigns diminished room for consensus, underscoring the pandemic’s consequences well beyond health outcomes alone. With trust deficient, restoring collaboration on this and future global health challenges appears increasingly challenging amid growing US-China rivalry. Cooperation deficiencies undermined coordinated global responses and damaged trust needed to combat shared future threats. Institutional reforms and issue-specific cooperation may bridge bilateral differences if leadership reduces politicisation of crises transcending borders. To realise cooperation potentials, both nations must curb nationalist rhetoric and invest in restoring pragmatic communication through reformed multilateral health mechanisms. Prioritising shared interests over zero-sum positioning bolsters stability despite strategic rivalry marking US-China relations.