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Access status: Open Access ,
Variable intraspecific response to climate change in a medicinally important African tree species, Vachellia sieberiana (DC.) (paperbark thorn)
(Wiley, 2024-04-09) Jinga, Percy; Manyangadze, Tawanda
Climate change is predicted to disproportionately impact sub-Saharan Africa, with potential devastating consequences on plant populations. Climate change may, however, impact intraspecific taxa differently. The aim of the study was to determine the current distribution and impact of climate change on three varieties of Vachellia sieberiana, that is, var. sieberiana, var. villosa and var. woodii. Ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) were built in “biomod2” using 66, 45, and 137 occurrence records for var. sieberiana, var. villosa, and var. woodii, respectively. The ensemble SDMs were projected to 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 under three general circulation models (GCMs) and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The three GCMs were the Canadian Earth System Model version 5, the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Climate Model version 6A Low Resolution, and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6. The suitable habitat of var. sieberiana predominantly occurs in the Sudanian and Zambezian phytochoria while that of var. villosa largely occurs in the Sudanian phytochorion. The suitable habitat of var. woodii mainly occurs in the Zambezian phyotochorion. There is coexistence of var. villosa and var. sieberiana in the Sudanian phytochorion while var. sieberiana and var. woodii coexist in the Zambezian phytochorion. Under SSP2-4.5 in 2041–2060 and averaged across the three GCMs, the suitable habitat expanded by 33.8% and 119.7% for var. sieberiana and var. villosa, respectively. In contrast, the suitable habitat of var. woodii contracted by −8.4%. Similar trends were observed in 2041–2060 under SSP5-8.5 [var. sieberiana (38.6%), var. villosa (139.0%), and var. woodii (−10.4%)], in 2081–2100 under SSP2-4.5 [var. sieberiana (4.6%), var. villosa (153.4%), and var. woodii (−14.4%)], and in 2081–2100 under SSP5-8.5 [var. sieberiana (49.3%), var. villosa (233.4%), and var. woodii (−30.7%)]. Different responses to climate change call for unique management and conservation decisions for the varieties.
Access status: Open Access ,
Future climatically stable habitat of a vulnerable medicinal tree, Warburgia salutaris (Pepper-bark tree), overlaps with some protected areas in southern Africa.
(Ethnobiology and Conservation., 2026-06-10) Jinga, Percy; Manyangadze, Tawanda
Climate change will affect the distribution of medicinal plant species in sub-Saharan Africa, with potential negative consequences to especially rural and poor communities that depend on them for traditional medicines. The aim of the study was to determine future climatically stable habitat of Warburgia salutaris, a commonly used vulnerable medicinal plant species. An ensemble species distribution model (SDM) was built from eight algorithms and used to estimate the current and future distributions of the species. Six environmental variables and 146 occurrence records were used to calibrate individual SDMs before combining them into the ensemble SDM. The ensemble SDM was projected to 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), namely SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The projections were made under three general circulation models (GCMs), which were CanESM5, IPSLCM6A- LR and MIROC6. Results show that the current suitable habitat of the species occurs in South Africa, Eswatini, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. Under both time periods and SSPs, the suitable habitat of the species will markedly contract, especially under SSP5-8.5 in 2081–2100 (CanESM5 = -79%, IPSL-CM6A-LR = -87%, MIROC6 = -71%). Climate refuges that overlap with the future suitable habitat of W. salutaris were identified in protected areas (PAs), such as Malalotja Nature Reserve (Eswatini), Itala Nature Reserve (South Africa), and Nyanga National Park (Zimbabwe). The climate refuges in PAs may be priority areas to introduce the species.
Access status: Open Access ,
Perceived impacts of climate variability and change: an exploration of farmers’ adaptation strategies in Zimbabwe’s intensive farming region
(Springer, 2021-06-25) Mavhura, Emmanuel; Manyangadze, Tawanda; Aryal, Komal Raj
Climate variability and change (CVC) affect many economic sectors including agriculture. In order to alleviate the negative impact of CVC on food production, farmers must adopt a range of strategies. However, the strategies will be less effective if farmers’ perceptions on CVC are not considered. This study therefore, examined the perceptions of commercial farmers on CVC and their adaptation strategies to the perceived impacts. It used a cross sectional survey involving 365 farmers in the intensive farming region of Zimbabwe. Results showed that farmers’ perceptions on increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall amounts were cognate with climate data from the meteorological office. The findings also demonstrated that farmers were well aware of the CVC impacts on their livelihoods. These include increases in the frequency and severity of drought, and a shortening of the length of the rainy season. However, the most significant changes were observed among the natural and economic capitals including soil salinization, reduction in grazing pastures, fodder and crop yields in addition to increases in food prices. In response to the perceived impacts of local CVC, the farmers were adopting crop and land use management strategies that include planting rotation, cultivating short-season varieties and drought tolerant crops, crop and farm diversification, intensified irrigation, agroforestry, soil moisture conservation and mixed farming. The study concludes that farmers are active observers of local CVC. Therefore, they should modify their agricultural calendar and diversify their farming systems so as to better
Access status: Open Access ,
Knowledge and perceptions of schistosomiasis, a water-borne disease, in two semi-arid rural areas of South Africa (Ndumo) and Zimbabwe (Ntalale)
(Elsevier, 2020-08) Mbereko, Alexio; Chimbari, Moses John; Manyangadze, Tawanda; Mukaratirwa, Samson
Schistosomiasis is a serious water-borne disease of public health importance in southern Africa and is characterised by high morbidity and negative socio-economic repercussions. Limited knowledge on the mode of transmission and treatment contribute towards increase in the risk of infection.This study assessed community knowledge levels, perceptions and the co-constructed realities of social actors with regards to schistosomiasis in rural resource-poor communities of Ndumo in South Africa and Ntalale in Zimbabwe.We hypothesised that there was association between community knowledge level on schistosomiasis and location of residency and socio-demographic factors.Two-hundred and eight questionnaires were used to gather quantitative data on sociodemographics and knowledge levels while 18 focus group discussions were used to collect qualitative data on perceptions and social constructs. The Fisher's exact and Chi-square tests were used to determine the differences in community knowledge levels based on localities, gender, religion and age. Results showed that awareness level of schistosomiasis was assessed as ‘good’ in both Ndumo (91%) and Ntalale (81%). Majority of the respondents identified schistosomiasis as a water-borne disease with significantly higher proportion in Ndumo (89%) compared to Ntalale (68%) (p = 0.005). A significant proportion of participants in both localities were aware of the symptoms of schistosomiasis especially the passing of urine with blood (82.5% in Ndumo and 77.0% in Ntalale; p = 0.039). However, presence of schistosomiasis eggs in human stool apart from urine as a sign of infection was highly acknowledged in Ntalale (57.4%) compared to Ndumo (11.7%; p < 0.001). Knowledge on the body parts affected by the infection was low in both localities with 36.9% in Ntalale compared to 1.0% in Ndumo (p< 0.001). In both study areas, local understanding of schistosomiasis was limited to passing urine with blood, a symptomonly seen in cases of urinary schistosomiasis. All the participants associated schistosomiasis with being water-borne, but had divergent perceptions on the symptoms, lifecycle and treatment of the infection. Trends of schistosomiasis and at-risk populations were perceived differently in Ndumo and Ntalale. Although respondents from the two localities acknowledged schistosomiasis as water-borne disease, the study showed lack of in-depth knowledge on the life cycle of the diseases. We therefore recommend that health education be implemented together with other strategies such as improvement in access to water and sanitation in the two study areas to achieve effective control and prevention of the disease.
Access status: Open Access ,
Integrating argumentation in teaching probability: exploring the pedagogic impact on culturally diverse secondary school learners in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe
(BUSE, 2026) Chitera, Joshua
The integration of argumentation into mathematics education is increasingly perceived as a crucial pedagogical strategy that enhances learners’ engagement and understanding of challenging concepts such as probability. Probability helps learners cope with real scenarios that entail risk and uncertainty. Although argumentation is globally acknowledged, empirical studies evaluating its efficacy within culturally diverse contexts such as among secondary school learners in Bulawayo, remain limited. The lack of such studies calls for further research into how effectively argumentation can be incorporated into the teaching of probability in order to enhance learner achievements. Hence, this study sought to explore the effectiveness of incorporating argumentation into the teaching of probability to the culturally diverse secondary school learners in Bulawayo Central district, focusing on its impact on learners’ academic performances, attitudes, motivation, and critical thinking. The use of the pragmatic paradigm provided the philosophical flexibility to integrate both quantitative measures and qualitative learner experiences thereby ensuring a practically relevant evaluation of the argumentation-based intervention. Because there were only two secondary school mathematics classes at the selected school, a census approach was adopted, encompassing both intact classes (N = 40, with 20 learners each). Cluster randomisation was then applied to designate one intact class as the experimental group, which received argumentation-based instruction, while the counterpart class served as the control group, taught through traditional methods. Quantitative data were collected through pre-tests and post-tests while qualitative data were collected through focus group discussions, and semi-structured questionnaires. The quantitative data were analysed using Mann Whitney U test, and the Difference in Difference (DID) analysis. The pre-test results yielded no statistically significant difference (U = 197.00, p = 0.925, p > 0.05; with a Cohen’s d of 0.015) in performance between the experimental and control groups. However, the post-test results (U = 28.000, p = 0.015, p < 0.05; with Cohen’s d = 0.855) indicated a very large and significant improvement in learners’ performances. The Difference in Difference (DID) analysis further highlighted an average improvement of 11.05 points in academic performance for the experimental group, demonstrating the effectiveness of the argumentation-based instruction. The thematically analysed qualitative data revealed that the argumentation intervention significantly improved the learners’ attitudes, motivation, engagement, enthusiasm, and a deeper understanding of probability concepts among the experimental group learners. Insights from the qualitative results support the quantitative success as shown by increased confidence and motivation among the learners. Learners reported that a shift in their attitudes towards probability and their participation in argumentation activities improved their conceptual understanding of probability. This combination of the quantitative and qualitative data paints a comprehensive picture of the intervention’s effects, highlighting that when learners feel more engaged and confident, their performance reflects the change. The findings suggest that integrating argumentation in teaching probability is an effective instructional strategy that improves the performance of culturally diverse secondary school learners. This study, therefore, recommends the adoption of argumentation as a fundamental approach in mathematics and statistics education, emphasising its potential to foster critical thinking and deeper conceptual understanding among learners. This can be achieved through leveraging the learners’ cultural backgrounds as a sense-making resource.