Strategic intelligence as a source of resilience in volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous environments within the financial sector: small- to medium enterprises in Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Eswatini

Abstract

The increasing volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) characterising contemporary business environments presents existential threats to Financial Sector Small and Medium Enterprises (FSSMEs) in developing economies. Empirical evidence on strategic intelligence (SI) application in FSSMEs within Southern African contexts remains scarce. This study investigated SI as a source of resilience for FSSMEs operating in VUCA environments in selected Southern African countries. The research examined SI's influence on risk aversion strategies, the link between SI and resilience challenges, senior management competence in signal detection, FSSMEs' capacity for sustainable systems operation, and developed a model for effective SI utilisation. The study adopted a pragmatic mixed methods approach and administered a structured questionnaire to 360 FSSMEs from Eswatini, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Qualitative methods included focus group discussions with 30 FSSME leaders and in-depth interviews with 6 regulatory officials. Data were analysed using SPSS V26 and NVivo V15. Significant associations were found between SI and risk-aversion strategies (χ² = 1014.945, p < 0.001), with high-SI firms seven times more likely to adopt effective risk management strategies. A positive correlation existed between SI and reduced operational challenges (χ² = 543.708, p = 0.001). Critical competence deficits in signal detection were identified among senior management (mean scores < 2.0), alongside limited capacity for sustainable operations. FSSMEs face a substantial competence-resilience gap where theoretical SI awareness does not translate into effective application due to resource constraints, inadequate training, and weak policy support. This study provides the first cross-country empirical evidence on SI-resilience relationships in Southern African FSSMEs, extends the Systemic Resilience Model by introducing "resilience readiness," and distinguishes between signal detection and sense-making as distinct competences. The proposed Strategic Intelligence Utilisation for Resilience Model offers a practical framework for enhancing SME resilience. Future research should empirically test the model across diverse contexts.