The Effects of El Niño-Induced drought on household food and nutrition security in Mashonaland Central Province, Zimbabwe

Abstract

This study investigates the multifaceted effects of El Niño-induced drought on households in Muzarabani, Mashonaland Central Province, Zimbabwe, focusing on food and nutrition security, household income, health and coping mechanisms. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, the research incorporates quantitative data from surveys of 200 Ward 1 households and qualitative insights from five focus group discussions and nine key informant interviews. Descriptive statistics (frequencies and cross tabulations), multiple linear regression and thematic analysis was employed. The findings reveal that over 65% of households in Muzarabani face moderate to severe food insecurity, with income level emerging as the most significant determinant. Households earning less than USD 100 were particularly vulnerable to food shortages, a pattern reinforced by qualitative data linking El Niño-induced droughts to declines in food and nutrition security. Regression analysis showed that drought exposure significantly reduced household income (B = -0.609, p < 0.001), while demographic factors like age, gender, and education had limited predictive value. Additionally, 55.5% of households reported health problems during drought, and food shortages were significantly associated with changes in healthcare services (t = 2.508, p = 0.013; χ² = 6.160, p = 0.013). Coping strategies included migration (54.5%), livestock sales (51.5%), borrowing (48.5%), and food aid (48.0%), while small business creation (44.5%) was less common due to capital and skills constraints. Demographic variations influenced strategy choice, with migration more prevalent among educated households and aid reliance declining with income. Qualitative themes emphasized livelihood diversification, social networks, and migration, while highlighting the long-term costs of asset loss, indebtedness, and dietary compromise. Based on the study’s findings, key recommendations include expanding income-generating opportunities through support for small businesses, vocational training, and access to microcredit to overcome capital and skill barriers. Strengthening food security requires targeted social protection, such as food subsidies and cash transfers, for the poorest households. Education investment, particularly at secondary and vocational levels, can boost adaptive capacity and diversify livelihoods. Health systems should be made drought-responsive through early warning systems and community health support. All resilience-building efforts should be localized, inclusive, and grounded in community participation and indigenous knowledge. In conclusion, an integrated, resilience-focused policy approach is essential to address the compounded impacts of drought on vulnerable households, whose short-term coping strategies remain insufficient for sustainable food and nutrition security.